Got some practice time on this pattern today.
Mo called it right. After warming up, I took out my benchmark ball (Mission Domination/250K) and lined up as I would with it on a THS (line up left foot on 23, 11 at the arrows, 8-9 at the breakpoint). I was expecting it to turn off the spot, but in fact, thanks to the heavier volume of oil, it came up like a down-and-in shot, and held the line. Had me scratching my head, as that was not what I was expecting to happen. But I was indeed close..
But seeing the decent line, and seeing that ball speed was the problem, I slowed down, moved 2 and 1 left, stayed behind it, and saw the reaction I was looking for. 258 with the benchmark ball.
Balled up to my Challenge, moved a bit more left, and put Mo's formula to the test: feet at 27, target 14 at the arrows. spot on for the entire block, so I think I'm good here. Skid-flip had no chance, as I saw a couple of people struggle with the !Q Tour Pearl on the same shot, not realizing that there is OOB on that pattern. They were going more direct than me as well.
So for me, the key is slow down, Mo's breakpoint formula, and stay behind it, so I think I'm set on this pattern. Thanks for the advice here, guys. I appreciate it!