BallReviews
General Category => Miscellaneous => Topic started by: Qball2 on January 27, 2019, 09:33:42 PM
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I've searched everywhere and cannot find the answer to this question: Which has the greater odds of bowling (or which is more difficult to bowl) - an all strike game or an all spare game?
I've seen that the odds of bowling an all strike game is 11,500 to 1. Can anyone confirm?
I cannot find the odds of bowling an all spare game anywhere.
Does anyone know the numbers on sanctioned bowling leagues and whether they report the number of all strikes vs all spare games?
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Odds would be based on average. A 150 bowlers odds of either vs a 240 average bowlers odds are very different
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id imagine an all strikes game is way easier than an all spares game, at least in the sense of not trying for an all spares game.
now if we're going strictly for a player attempting an all spare game as opposed to an all strike game, its definitely all spares. i'm sure enough people can strategically place enough balls into a small enough area to leave easy spare opportunities.
Now, if we're talking about actually trying to bowl the highest game possible. 300 is definitely easier than an all spare game. sure 12 strikes in a row isn't easy persay, but anyone accurate enough to make 10 spares is going to mess around and throw a strike at some point in the game
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Still haven't thrown a perfect game (289 high) but thrown at least 3 all spare games back before made some adjustments to my style (was starting too far back and missing right alot on first ball). Still occasionally throw clean games under 200 but throw more strikes than before.
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Well having done all 3 I'd say this the all spare was just a nite of total frustration {no carry}. The 300's were not gimme's especially 30 yrs. ago. But the Hardest was the Dutch 200, especially the 10th frame on the lane you needed both an X & the spare. That was more nerve wracking than X'ing out in the 10th for 300.
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All spare games much rarer than 300. Bsck in the pre high tech ball era of the 60s it might have been close.
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Odds would be based on average. A 150 bowlers odds of either vs a 240 average bowlers odds are very different
Do you really think the odds of bowling an all spare game for a 240 average bowler is any greater than a 150 average? I think it would be more difficult for a 240 average bowler to get an all spare game than it would be to get an all strike game. It is awfully difficult to both NOT get a strike and to pick up ALL frames every time. Isn't it??
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In todays environment an all spare game is extremely rare. Modern balls are mire likely to leave splits if you ate s bit high, and 2-10 combinations if you are light. Also its pretty hard to not carry on 10 consecutive pocket hits, but that is the only place you have a chance to leave an easy spare.
Bottom line it is easier to throw 12 strikes than to leave 10 straight makeable spares and not strike.
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In todays environment an all spare game is extremely rare. Modern balls are mire likely to leave splits if you ate s bit high, and 2-10 combinations if you are light. Also its pretty hard to not carry on 10 consecutive pocket hits, but that is the only place you have a chance to leave an easy spare.
Bottom line it is easier to throw 12 strikes than to leave 10 straight makeable spares and not strike.
I hear you, but I must disagree! I've actually done this multiple times this year in league play. What I have learned from it is....."The Grind"!
Instead of being totally frustrated because I knew I threw good shots and did not get the carry, I've been patient. I have never thrown an all spare game in my last game of the set. It has always been either the first game or the second game, so......I stick with the ball I am throwing(as long as I feel I've been throwing quality shots) and the transition comes to me, opening up my next game to the 240ish or 250ish level!
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Go to your local bowling alley on their biggest league night where you have a variety of low, mid, and high average bowlers. Ask the front desk if they can provide print outs that show every frame result for every game for every bowler after the league has ended.
I know one of my centers can do that and another one doesn't have the capability. Depends on their scoring system I think. If the bowling alley is a modern Bowlero or Brunswick center they should be able to give you the print outs.
So if your center can do it, take home the results and do your own data analysis.
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Odds would be based on average. A 150 bowlers odds of either vs a 240 average bowlers odds are very different
^^ This.
Do you really think the odds of bowling an all spare game for a 240 average bowler is any greater than a 150 average? I think it would be more difficult for a 240 average bowler to get an all spare game than it would be to get an all strike game. It is awfully difficult to both NOT get a strike and to pick up ALL frames every time. Isn't it??
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Odds would be based on average. A 150 bowlers odds of either vs a 240 average bowlers odds are very different
Do you really think the odds of bowling an all spare game for a 240 average bowler is any greater than a 150 average? I think it would be more difficult for a 240 average bowler to get an all spare game than it would be to get an all strike game. It is awfully difficult to both NOT get a strike and to pick up ALL frames every time. Isn't it??
Qball2 ^^ This.
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Wow! Multiple all spare games in one season would be incredible. I can't remember the last time I saw one.
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I struggled with carry for about a month this season. Pretty sure there was a strike or two in there, but I had a few clean sets with three 190's. For awhile I couldn't double up to save my life.
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Clean game with only a couple of strikes is totally different than a true all spare game
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I lean toward thinking that the all spare game is more difficult for this reason: all bowlers are attempting to get the highest score possible, which means bowling a strike. An all-strike game is intentional. An all-spare game is not intentional. If a bowler is good enough to actually be able to spare out all frames, he/she is obviously a good enough bowler to get a strike or two. To NOT get a strike when one is trying over all frames AND to get all spares is certainly very highly unlikely. Also, to get an all strike game requires 12 throws with the same result. An all spare game requires a minimum of 20 throws all with the same result, which in and of itself, lends to lower probability. Thoughts?!
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Very odd to not get at least a couple of strikes if you are consistently in the pocket. Even more odd to leave makeable spares if you are missing the pocket consistently.
Said another way, 95 % of bowlers couldn't pick up 10 straight 10 pins if they were conceded a 9 count on every ball. The other 5 % are too good to leave 10 straight single pins
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I think it also matters what the lanes are like.
I can not remember any all spare games in any of the house shot leagues I have bowled. I have a lot league time, and many seasons of multiple leagues. no all spare games that I can recall.
in my sport league, when we get some of the patterns with a pretty flat oil ratio I have seen 2 or 3 all spare games in my sport league this year.
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Odds would be based on average. A 150 bowlers odds of either vs a 240 average bowlers odds are very different
Do you really think the odds of bowling an all spare game for a 240 average bowler is any greater than a 150 average? I think it would be more difficult for a 240 average bowler to get an all spare game than it would be to get an all strike game. It is awfully difficult to both NOT get a strike and to pick up ALL frames every time. Isn't it??
If the 240 average bowlers objective was to shoot an all spare game his odds of doing it would be better then the 150 average bowler. Same for if they both tried to shoot 300.
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I agree that the all spare game is becoming more rare due to the dynamic equipment we now enjoy. Besides, most bowlers can't convert the 10 pin more than twice in a game. ;)
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I lean toward thinking that the all spare game is more difficult for this reason: all bowlers are attempting to get the highest score possible, which means bowling a strike. An all-strike game is intentional. An all-spare game is not intentional. If a bowler is good enough to actually be able to spare out all frames, he/she is obviously a good enough bowler to get a strike or two. To NOT get a strike when one is trying over all frames AND to get all spares is certainly very highly unlikely. Also, to get an all strike game requires 12 throws with the same result. An all spare game requires a minimum of 20 throws all with the same result, which in and of itself, lends to lower probability. Thoughts?!
Well. I guess you can call me Mr. Unlikely! Cause I've had an all spare game or two! If it occurs again, I will be sure and take a picture of it so I can preserve it for chatter later, LOL!
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TL;DR version, mexican remake Danger Zone (cough trash) meets Mom and Pop lanes with crappy summer pins (wife was getting designer splits on pocket hits and even mentioned hit didn't sound right), with a spinner who wasn't coming through the ball particularly well and decided to go for it half way through and not move feet all game (why ruin a beautiful thing of mediocrity, plus open bowling anyway) and got a perfect storm. Left maybe 1 ten pin and at least three 5 pins.
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I'd consider an all spare game to be less likely - at least as a result of a "normal" game with the objective of a strike on the 1st shot.
Not a proff, but I have witnessed several 300 games live, but, until today, only a single Dutch 200.
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"All Spare" games are not intentional.
The real question should be "Which is harder, a normal 300 game or a perfect low-ball game of 20?"
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House shot, all spare game. Sport compliant shot, all strike game.
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"All Spare" games are not intentional.
The real question should be "Which is harder, a normal 300 game or a perfect low-ball game of 20?"
No doubt, the 20 point low-ball score is a lot harder, maybe similar to a 900 series. -- JohnP
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"All Spare" games are not intentional.
The real question should be "Which is harder, a normal 300 game or a perfect low-ball game of 20?"
No doubt, the 20 point low-ball score is a lot harder, maybe similar to a 900 series. -- JohnP
+1 to both. Odds are just higher for some intermediate bowlers for all spare game imo.
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First, I agree, the term harder is not applicable. An all spare game is less likely by a huge margin on any lane condition. You would have to go back to the rubber ball lacquer era to to find an environment where an all spare game is anything but a very rare event compared to a 300
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from a strictly numbers/mathematical viewpoint there can be only one answer, its the all spare game. there are multiple outcomes on the first ball that can lead to an all spare game and only 1 outcome that leads to a perfect game.
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Not sure what you are saying about the odds, but not all those multiple outcomes have equal liklihood but. I have seen literally hundreds of 300 games over the past 25 years, and maybe 10 or 15 all spare games. I can only think of one I have had, against more than 40 300s. By the way, I am consudered a very good spare shooter
Bottom line, the odds against leaving 10 makeable spares without throwing a strike are pretty high. The odds against throwing 12 strikes in a row is very high also, but probably a factor of ten higher against the all spare game. Totally different if you are trying it certainly changes the odds. I have bowled for almost 60 years. I cant remember ever putting 10 balls in the pocket without getting a strike.
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You have to make it an apples-to-apples comparison. For the sake of argument, assume for a given period the bowler is trying to leave make-able spare combinations without striking and then pick them up.
For me, I'd have better odds of accomplishing the all spare game than the 300. I'd go as far to say that it you gave me 5 practice games to accomplish the feat, I'd probably get the all spares done at least once. There is no way I'd predict throwing a 300 in a five game stretch.
If the question is the odds of all spares while trying to strike, that's completely different. I'd say it's less likely than throwing a 300. As was previously noted, much of it depends on THS vs. Sport conditions.
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Not sure what you are saying about the odds, but not all those multiple outcomes have equal liklihood but. I have seen literally hundreds of 300 games over the past 25 years, and maybe 10 or 15 all spare games. I can only think of one I have had, ahainstore thsn 40 300s. By the way, I am consudered a very good spare shooter
Bottom line, the odds against leaving 10 makeable spares without throwing a strike are pretty high. The odds against throwing 12 strikes in a row is very high also, but probably a factor of ten higher against the all spare game
there is double the margin for error to have an all spare game. the confusion comes in perception. we pay attention to 300 games, they are something to remember, meanwhile no one really pays attention a game you had bad carry and left corner pins or other single pin spares. and didn't strike, i'd venture to say that if everyone actually tracked every shot thrown in a game they'd be surprised to see how many times they either had an all spare game or game up short 1 or 2 due to a missed corner pin, and i'd bet it far outnumbers perfect games or any 290+ score they have. the issue is no one remembers that grind it out 180 game but everyone remembers the 290+/300 scores.
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For that all spare game I was trying to strike until realized had a shot and then at that point didn't want to change a thing (plenty of 9s towards end). Actually threw best shot of game first ball of tenth and turned around in disgust and was amazed to see a 5 pin standing. Shooting that spare was brutal but somehow didn't screw it up. Did cheat on last ball when I used my spare ball (and conveniently tugged one bad) lol. Went through the face a couple of times on first balls so definitely plenty of luck involved. Only thrown that Danger Zone handful of times but already had negative opinion of its carry. Curious to throw it again and see if maybe something ain't right with its core (no hollow sound at least).
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For that all spare game I was trying to strike until realized had a shot and then at that point didn't want to change a thing (plenty of 9s towards end). Actually threw best shot of game first ball of tenth and turned around in disgust and was amazed to see a 5 pin standing. Shooting that spare was brutal but somehow didn't screw it up. Did cheat on last ball when I used my spare ball (and conveniently tugged one bad) lol. Went through the face a couple of times on first balls so definitely plenty of luck involved. Only thrown that Danger Zone handful of times but already had negative opinion of its carry. Curious to throw it again and see if maybe something ain't right with its core (no hollow sound at least).
If your best shot leaves a 5 pin, you have major problems.
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For that all spare game I was trying to strike until realized had a shot and then at that point didn't want to change a thing (plenty of 9s towards end). Actually threw best shot of game first ball of tenth and turned around in disgust and was amazed to see a 5 pin standing. Shooting that spare was brutal but somehow didn't screw it up. Did cheat on last ball when I used my spare ball (and conveniently tugged one bad) lol. Went through the face a couple of times on first balls so definitely plenty of luck involved. Only thrown that Danger Zone handful of times but already had negative opinion of its carry. Curious to throw it again and see if maybe something ain't right with its core (no hollow sound at least).
If your best shot leaves a 5 pin, you have major problems.
First to admit wasn't bowling that well and was turning the ball early. By best I meant more not as bad as the others but yeah not great (still think something up with that ball as wasn't that bad, turned back so didn't see how, might have been another pin that slid for all I know but more likely over under). Bowled much better today but yeah not in your league (so to speak) by a long shot. A 180 is kind of lame even if get in an unusual way as said above. Posted more out of boredom than pride. 300 sure is a better picture if nothing else no doubt.
(edit: also wife and kid left several 5-7-10 blowouts and other designer splits, something was amiss even if yeah operator error mostly, rarely go to that house)
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Actually, an all spare game is way more memorable than a 300, simply due to its rarity. Also, I dont ever recall seeing anyone trying not to strike for purposes of shooting an all spare.
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Bowling as a youth with a 12 pound ball, I was able to bowl several all spare games. As an adult, using a 15 pound ball, I can only remember doing it once and it was on a sport shot (WTBA Tokyo). I would for the most part either flat 7 or go high leaving the 2-4-7. I shot 177 - and it was maddening and I didn't have an answer (obviously I'm not that good).
Anyway, I think it would be incredibly hard to have an all spare game on a house shot for a bowler throwing anything over 14 pounds with an average 200 or higher. However, a bowler with low ball speed, no revs, and a decent amount of accuracy could do it on the regular. I bowled with a woman who fit this description to a t - she averaged in the 160s and did not strike often although she was around the pocket most of the time.