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Author Topic: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?  (Read 1184 times)

Qball2

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Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« on: January 27, 2019, 09:33:42 PM »
I've searched everywhere and cannot find the answer to this question: Which has the greater odds of bowling (or which is more difficult to bowl) - an all strike game or an all spare game?

I've seen that the odds of bowling an all strike game is 11,500 to 1. Can anyone confirm?

I cannot find the odds of bowling an all spare game anywhere.

Does anyone know the numbers on sanctioned bowling leagues and whether they report the number of all strikes vs all spare games?

 

Qball2

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2019, 09:09:32 AM »
I lean toward thinking that the all spare game is more difficult for this reason: all bowlers are attempting to get the highest score possible, which means bowling a strike. An all-strike game is intentional. An all-spare game is not intentional. If a bowler is good enough to actually be able to spare out all frames, he/she is obviously a good enough bowler to get a strike or two. To NOT get a strike when one is trying over all frames AND to get all spares is certainly very highly unlikely.  Also, to get an all strike game requires 12 throws with the same result. An all spare game requires a minimum of 20 throws all with the same result, which in and of itself, lends to lower probability.  Thoughts?!

avabob

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2019, 05:06:09 PM »
Very odd to not get at least a couple of strikes if you are consistently in the pocket.   Even more odd to leave makeable spares if you are missing the pocket consistently.

Said another way, 95 % of bowlers couldn't pick up 10 straight 10 pins if they were conceded a 9 count on every ball.  The other 5 % are too good to leave 10 straight single pins
« Last Edit: February 08, 2019, 05:11:08 PM by avabob »

SG17

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2019, 06:08:59 PM »
I think it also matters what the lanes are like.

I can not remember any all spare games in any of the house shot leagues I have bowled.  I have a lot league time, and many seasons of multiple leagues.  no all spare games that I can recall.

in my sport league, when we get some of the patterns with a pretty flat oil ratio I have seen 2 or 3 all spare games in my sport league this year.

ignitebowling

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2019, 08:46:27 PM »
Odds would be based on average. A 150 bowlers odds of either vs a 240 average bowlers odds are very different

Do you really think the odds of bowling an all spare game for a 240 average bowler is any greater than a 150 average? I think it would be more difficult for a 240 average bowler to get an all spare game than it would be to get an all strike game. It is awfully difficult to both NOT get a strike and to pick up ALL frames every time. Isn't it??

If the 240 average bowlers objective was to shoot an all spare game his odds of doing it would be better then the 150 average bowler.  Same for if they both tried to shoot 300.
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notclay

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2019, 01:00:00 PM »

I agree that the all spare game is becoming more rare due to the dynamic equipment we now enjoy.  Besides, most bowlers can't convert the 10 pin more than twice in a game. ;)
Lane Carter
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Jesse James

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2019, 11:48:52 AM »
I lean toward thinking that the all spare game is more difficult for this reason: all bowlers are attempting to get the highest score possible, which means bowling a strike. An all-strike game is intentional. An all-spare game is not intentional. If a bowler is good enough to actually be able to spare out all frames, he/she is obviously a good enough bowler to get a strike or two. To NOT get a strike when one is trying over all frames AND to get all spares is certainly very highly unlikely.  Also, to get an all strike game requires 12 throws with the same result. An all spare game requires a minimum of 20 throws all with the same result, which in and of itself, lends to lower probability.  Thoughts?!

Well. I guess you can call me Mr. Unlikely! Cause I've had an all spare game or two! If it occurs again, I will be sure and take a picture of it so I can preserve it for chatter later, LOL!
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