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Author Topic: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?  (Read 3457 times)

Qball2

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Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« on: January 27, 2019, 09:33:42 PM »
I've searched everywhere and cannot find the answer to this question: Which has the greater odds of bowling (or which is more difficult to bowl) - an all strike game or an all spare game?

I've seen that the odds of bowling an all strike game is 11,500 to 1. Can anyone confirm?

I cannot find the odds of bowling an all spare game anywhere.

Does anyone know the numbers on sanctioned bowling leagues and whether they report the number of all strikes vs all spare games?

 

Qball2

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2019, 09:09:32 AM »
I lean toward thinking that the all spare game is more difficult for this reason: all bowlers are attempting to get the highest score possible, which means bowling a strike. An all-strike game is intentional. An all-spare game is not intentional. If a bowler is good enough to actually be able to spare out all frames, he/she is obviously a good enough bowler to get a strike or two. To NOT get a strike when one is trying over all frames AND to get all spares is certainly very highly unlikely.  Also, to get an all strike game requires 12 throws with the same result. An all spare game requires a minimum of 20 throws all with the same result, which in and of itself, lends to lower probability.  Thoughts?!

avabob

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2019, 05:06:09 PM »
Very odd to not get at least a couple of strikes if you are consistently in the pocket.   Even more odd to leave makeable spares if you are missing the pocket consistently.

Said another way, 95 % of bowlers couldn't pick up 10 straight 10 pins if they were conceded a 9 count on every ball.  The other 5 % are too good to leave 10 straight single pins
« Last Edit: February 08, 2019, 05:11:08 PM by avabob »

SG17

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2019, 06:08:59 PM »
I think it also matters what the lanes are like.

I can not remember any all spare games in any of the house shot leagues I have bowled.  I have a lot league time, and many seasons of multiple leagues.  no all spare games that I can recall.

in my sport league, when we get some of the patterns with a pretty flat oil ratio I have seen 2 or 3 all spare games in my sport league this year.

ignitebowling

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2019, 08:46:27 PM »
Odds would be based on average. A 150 bowlers odds of either vs a 240 average bowlers odds are very different

Do you really think the odds of bowling an all spare game for a 240 average bowler is any greater than a 150 average? I think it would be more difficult for a 240 average bowler to get an all spare game than it would be to get an all strike game. It is awfully difficult to both NOT get a strike and to pick up ALL frames every time. Isn't it??

If the 240 average bowlers objective was to shoot an all spare game his odds of doing it would be better then the 150 average bowler.  Same for if they both tried to shoot 300.
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BallReviews-Removed0385

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2019, 01:00:00 PM »

I agree that the all spare game is becoming more rare due to the dynamic equipment we now enjoy.  Besides, most bowlers can't convert the 10 pin more than twice in a game. ;)

Jesse James

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2019, 11:48:52 AM »
I lean toward thinking that the all spare game is more difficult for this reason: all bowlers are attempting to get the highest score possible, which means bowling a strike. An all-strike game is intentional. An all-spare game is not intentional. If a bowler is good enough to actually be able to spare out all frames, he/she is obviously a good enough bowler to get a strike or two. To NOT get a strike when one is trying over all frames AND to get all spares is certainly very highly unlikely.  Also, to get an all strike game requires 12 throws with the same result. An all spare game requires a minimum of 20 throws all with the same result, which in and of itself, lends to lower probability.  Thoughts?!

Well. I guess you can call me Mr. Unlikely! Cause I've had an all spare game or two! If it occurs again, I will be sure and take a picture of it so I can preserve it for chatter later, LOL!
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BowlingForDonuts

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2019, 06:20:32 PM »
TL;DR version,  mexican remake Danger Zone (cough trash) meets Mom and Pop lanes with crappy summer pins (wife was getting designer splits on pocket hits and even mentioned hit didn't sound right),  with a spinner who wasn't coming through the ball particularly well and decided to go for it half way through and not move feet all game (why ruin a beautiful thing of mediocrity, plus open bowling anyway) and got a perfect storm.  Left maybe 1 ten pin and at least three 5 pins.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 09:11:56 AM by BowlingForDonuts »
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dizzyfugu

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #23 on: July 22, 2019, 09:04:24 AM »
I'd consider an all spare game to be less likely - at least as a result of a "normal" game with the objective of a strike on the 1st shot.
Not a proff, but I have witnessed several 300 games live, but, until today, only a single Dutch 200.
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milorafferty

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #24 on: July 22, 2019, 09:34:31 AM »
"All Spare" games are not intentional.

The real question should be "Which is harder, a normal 300 game or a perfect low-ball game of 20?"
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Impending Doom

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #25 on: July 22, 2019, 09:49:42 AM »
House shot, all spare game. Sport compliant shot, all strike game.

JohnP

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #26 on: July 22, 2019, 09:53:51 AM »
"All Spare" games are not intentional.

The real question should be "Which is harder, a normal 300 game or a perfect low-ball game of 20?"

No doubt, the 20 point low-ball score is a lot harder, maybe similar to a 900 series.  --  JohnP

BowlingForDonuts

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #27 on: July 22, 2019, 10:44:41 AM »
"All Spare" games are not intentional.

The real question should be "Which is harder, a normal 300 game or a perfect low-ball game of 20?"

No doubt, the 20 point low-ball score is a lot harder, maybe similar to a 900 series.  --  JohnP

+1 to both.  Odds are just higher for some intermediate bowlers for all spare game imo.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 10:47:11 AM by BowlingForDonuts »
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avabob

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #28 on: July 22, 2019, 10:47:04 AM »
First,  I agree, the term harder is not applicable.   An all spare game is less likely by a huge margin on any lane condition.  You would have to go back to the rubber ball lacquer era to to find an environment where an all spare game is anything but a very rare event compared to a 300

tritonj

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #29 on: July 22, 2019, 12:25:58 PM »
from a strictly numbers/mathematical viewpoint there can be only one answer, its the all spare game.  there are multiple outcomes on the first ball that can lead to an all spare game and only 1 outcome that leads to a perfect game. 

avabob

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #30 on: July 22, 2019, 02:17:03 PM »
Not sure what you are saying about the odds, but not all those multiple outcomes have equal liklihood but.  I have seen  literally hundreds of 300 games over the past 25 years, and maybe 10 or 15 all spare games.  I can only think of one I have had,  against more than  40 300s.  By the way, I am consudered a very good spare shooter


Bottom line, the odds against leaving 10 makeable spares without throwing a strike are pretty high.  The odds against throwing 12 strikes in a row is very high also, but probably a factor of ten higher against the all spare game.  Totally different if you are trying it certainly changes the odds.  I have bowled for almost 60 years.  I cant remember ever putting 10 balls in the pocket without getting a strike. 
 
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 05:02:21 PM by avabob »