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Author Topic: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?  (Read 2394 times)

Qball2

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Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« on: January 27, 2019, 09:33:42 PM »
I've searched everywhere and cannot find the answer to this question: Which has the greater odds of bowling (or which is more difficult to bowl) - an all strike game or an all spare game?

I've seen that the odds of bowling an all strike game is 11,500 to 1. Can anyone confirm?

I cannot find the odds of bowling an all spare game anywhere.

Does anyone know the numbers on sanctioned bowling leagues and whether they report the number of all strikes vs all spare games?

 

Steven

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #31 on: July 22, 2019, 02:43:16 PM »
You have to make it an apples-to-apples comparison. For the sake of argument, assume for a given period the bowler is trying to leave make-able spare combinations without striking and then pick them up.
 
For me, I'd have better odds of accomplishing the all spare game than the 300. I'd go as far to say that it you gave me 5 practice games to accomplish the feat, I'd probably get the all spares done at least once. There is no way I'd predict throwing a 300 in a five game stretch. 
 
If the question is the odds of all spares while trying to strike, that's completely different. I'd say it's less likely than throwing a 300. As was previously noted, much of it depends on THS vs. Sport conditions.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 02:48:15 PM by Steven »

tritonj

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #32 on: July 22, 2019, 03:35:47 PM »
Not sure what you are saying about the odds, but not all those multiple outcomes have equal liklihood but.  I have seen  literally hundreds of 300 games over the past 25 years, and maybe 10 or 15 all spare games.  I can only think of one I have had,  ahainstore thsn 40 300s.  By the way, I am consudered a very good spare shooter


Bottom line, the odds against leaving 10 makeable spares without throwing a strike are pretty high.  The odds against throwing 12 strikes in a row is very high also, but probably a factor of ten higher against the all spare game

there is double the margin for error to have an all spare game.  the confusion comes in perception.  we pay attention to 300 games, they are something to remember, meanwhile no one really pays attention a game you had bad carry and left corner pins or other single pin spares. and didn't strike, i'd venture to say that if everyone actually tracked every shot thrown in a game they'd be surprised to see how many times they either had an all spare game or game up short 1 or 2 due to a missed corner pin, and i'd bet it far outnumbers perfect games or any 290+ score they have.  the issue is no one remembers that grind it out 180 game but everyone remembers the 290+/300 scores.

BowlingForDonuts

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #33 on: July 22, 2019, 03:46:25 PM »
For that all spare game I was trying to strike until realized had a shot and then at that point didn't want to change a thing (plenty of 9s towards end).  Actually threw best shot of game first ball of tenth and turned around in disgust and was amazed to see a 5 pin standing.  Shooting that spare was brutal but somehow didn't screw it up.  Did cheat on last ball when I used my spare ball (and conveniently tugged one bad) lol.  Went through the face a couple of times on first balls so definitely plenty of luck involved.  Only thrown that Danger Zone handful of times but already had negative opinion of its carry.  Curious to throw it again and see if maybe something ain't right with its core (no hollow sound at least).
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 03:59:12 PM by BowlingForDonuts »
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northface28

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #34 on: July 22, 2019, 04:17:11 PM »
For that all spare game I was trying to strike until realized had a shot and then at that point didn't want to change a thing (plenty of 9s towards end).  Actually threw best shot of game first ball of tenth and turned around in disgust and was amazed to see a 5 pin standing.  Shooting that spare was brutal but somehow didn't screw it up.  Did cheat on last ball when I used my spare ball (and conveniently tugged one bad) lol.  Went through the face a couple of times on first balls so definitely plenty of luck involved.  Only thrown that Danger Zone handful of times but already had negative opinion of its carry.  Curious to throw it again and see if maybe something ain't right with its core (no hollow sound at least).

If your best shot leaves a 5 pin, you have major problems.
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BowlingForDonuts

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #35 on: July 22, 2019, 05:04:38 PM »
For that all spare game I was trying to strike until realized had a shot and then at that point didn't want to change a thing (plenty of 9s towards end).  Actually threw best shot of game first ball of tenth and turned around in disgust and was amazed to see a 5 pin standing.  Shooting that spare was brutal but somehow didn't screw it up.  Did cheat on last ball when I used my spare ball (and conveniently tugged one bad) lol.  Went through the face a couple of times on first balls so definitely plenty of luck involved.  Only thrown that Danger Zone handful of times but already had negative opinion of its carry.  Curious to throw it again and see if maybe something ain't right with its core (no hollow sound at least).

If your best shot leaves a 5 pin, you have major problems.

First to admit wasn't bowling that well and was turning the ball early.  By best I meant more not as bad as the others but yeah not great (still think something up with that ball as wasn't that bad, turned back so didn't see how, might have been another pin that slid for all I know but more likely over under).  Bowled much better today but yeah not in your league (so to speak) by a long shot.  A 180 is kind of lame even if get in an unusual way as said above.  Posted more out of boredom than pride.  300 sure is a better picture if nothing else no doubt.

(edit:  also wife and kid left several 5-7-10 blowouts and other designer splits, something was amiss even if yeah operator error mostly, rarely go to that house)
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 08:10:23 PM by BowlingForDonuts »
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avabob

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #36 on: July 22, 2019, 09:31:40 PM »
Actually, an all spare game is way more memorable  than a 300, simply due to its rarity.  Also, I dont ever recall seeing anyone trying not to strike for purposes of shooting an all spare. 

LookingForALeftyWall

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Re: Greatest odds - All strike or all spare game?
« Reply #37 on: July 23, 2019, 08:38:25 AM »
Bowling as a youth with a 12 pound ball, I was able to bowl several all spare games.  As an adult, using a 15 pound ball, I can only remember doing it once and it was on a sport shot (WTBA Tokyo).  I would for the most part either flat 7 or go high leaving the 2-4-7.  I shot 177 - and it was maddening and I didn't have an answer (obviously I'm not that good). 

Anyway, I think it would be incredibly hard to have an all spare game on a house shot for a bowler throwing anything over 14 pounds with an average 200 or higher.  However, a bowler with low ball speed, no revs, and a decent amount of accuracy could do it on the regular.  I bowled with a woman who fit this description to a t - she averaged in the 160s and did not strike often although she was around the pocket most of the time.