IF I remember right....the 1/129XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX figure came from the
"ESPN outside" the lines special on Mushtare ....
I believe that the statistic was based on the AVERAGE bowler shooting two 900s.
I believe the assumptions were based on the total number of 900s bowled to that point divided by all of the sanctioned bowling games ever bowled by all members. Over the what...80( year history of sanctioned bowling?
Instead of getting too complicated for some people out here.
I think we could all agree that the chances of a woman 125 average bowler shooting a 800 are way less than the chances of a 220 average bowler to shoot an 800.
Following that logic we could also agree that the theoretical chances of a bowler in a hot phase averaging over a 10 game block over 250 are higher to shoot an 850 than another guy in the same block averaging 210.
That is not hard is it?
Therefore included in the number above is a lot of people who probably almost could never never never never ever even shoot an 800. 170 average men and below and also 170 average woman and below. 800 anytime soon. Let me know....never happen.
Now to calculate the chance of a super high series for a particular individual we can easily say someone averaging over 250 like 10 strikes a game has a much higher chance to throw a 900 than a guy averaging 7 strikes a game and 210 average.
All the time I hear righties say....."Man if only I didn't have to bowl in all this cross traffic like you get that sweet china!". I think a guy in a hot phase in league averaging over 240 in league with cross traffic would think man....if I just prebowl by myself(no crosstraffic) or with 1 friend I bet I could come a lot closer to 900(if in a groove) than bowling in cross traffic.
I still say.....
Here is a more UNLIKELY statistical event for a righty than bowling two 900s....yet it happened" An 899, and 879 bowled within 10 days in regular league by a RIGHTY with cross traffic. I actually believe the adjustments required to do this feat by Eric George is absolutely phenomenal.
Here is another example of what is possible. Please read Ken Simards comments in this article. This on a pattern much harder than Robert Mushtare's home house with NO cross traffic(ie pre bowl!).
"I must be the world's worst bowler with 9 strikes" AND this on a pattern much tougher than Robert Mushtare's prebowl 900s! Pressure, cross traffic, lane management! Wow no wonder so many people are so impressed with Ken Simard! (I've never seen him throw!).
My point is....I saw a guy in league once start 3 straight series with 9 in a row for every game! Then I believe tighten up! 900 was possible every set if he just kept throwing the same....but he added an Xtra to the equation....he tightened up!
To me....Robert Mushtare is a top hat killer (and I guess good on shark). But bowling multiple super series on UNBLEMISHED CHINA....possible. Above even on BLEMISHED china(Eric George) and Blemished PBA (Ken Simard)(tough shots) bowlers are ALMOST doing it!
Righties always wanted unblemished china so they could have a chance at super series. They had it for awhile and now they've made sure they don't have it anymore. Now only the much less populous lefty population continue the chance to have unblemished china. But there are so few of them in comparison to the number of righties.
Robert Mushtare to me has only proven to me that he is a top hat killer(and I love to watch guys do that). A best at this point a 1 1/2 to 2 (shark)trick pony. Wonderful I say. Will he ever be a great PBA bowler? No idea!
REgards,
Luckylefty
PS I still say a very important factor in the Robert Mushtare accomplishments is the unblemished (as a result of NO cross traffic) china aspect which no longer exists for righties in the pursuit of super series. ie...the prebow lack of cross traffic dramatically raises the odds for a righty to shoot a higher series versus his regular league.
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Open the door...see what's possible...and just walk right on through...that's how easy success feels..
Edited on 12/4/2008 0:07 AM
